As an adult, distance running has become a passion of mine, and over time I’ve collected a small stack of race medals. Training for 10ks and half-marathons has taught me a vital lesson: always keep an energy margin. That reserve of strength and endurance can mean the difference between hitting the proverbial runner’s “wall” or finishing a race strong. When a runner’s margin is depleted, that vital energy source is gone and the body stalls out. Just like a distance runner, farms need a margin to absorb volatility and keep running into the next season. But in today’s farm economy, that margin is shrinking fast.
Across Missouri and the nation, farm margins are being squeezed between rising input costs and depressed commodity prices. According to USDA projections, farm production expenses are expected to climb to $467.4 billion in 2025, up 31% from 2020. Virtually every expense category has seen a significant increase in cost. For crop producers, the numbers are sobering. USDA cost-of-production forecasts show that in 2025, the cost of producing corn tops $897 per acre, soybeans $639, wheat $396, cotton $940, and rice $1,317. Costs are projected to rise even higher in 2026, setting new records for soybeans, wheat, and cotton. For many crops, losses could exceed $100-200 per acre.
What’s driving these record expenses that are eating into farm margins? All input prices are higher, but notable categories are seed, fertilizer and chemicals. Farmers have seen the cost of these three inputs jump 18 to 37% over the past five years.
Geopolitical instability, export restrictions and supply chain disruptions have kept global fertilizer prices unstable. DTN’s retail fertilizer survey shows potash up 8% and both DAP and nitrogen products (UAN32 and UAN28) up 25% or more from a year ago. USDA forecasts another 9% rise in combined seed, fertilizer and chemical costs in 2026, and industry experts predict fertilizer costs will remain sticky.
Livestock producers have also faced their own uphill race. While feed costs have softened, other expenses like labor, interest, taxes, marketing, and veterinary medicine remain elevated. Land and machinery costs are also a challenge. USDA’s tractor price index suggests prices increased more than 20% between 2020 and 2023.
Margins this thin are forcing tough decisions on the farm. Some producers are considering scaling back fertility plans, giving up ground or tapping deeper into operating lines. Analysts at Rabobank warn that sticky input costs may linger, leaving little room for breakeven potential until at least 2027.
But even as farms near “the wall,” action is underway to help strengthen margins. In late October, the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing to examine competition in the seed and fertilizer industries, an important step toward addressing input costs. Earlier this fall, Missouri Farm Bureau (MOFB) sent a letter supporting the addition of phosphate to the U.S. Geological Survey’s List of Critical Minerals. Phosphate is an essential crop nutrient, and designating it as a critical mineral can help improve supply security, reduce permitting delays, and mitigate against global disruptions. Just as every runner needs an energy margin to cross the finish line, every farm needs a margin to keep producing the food, fuel, and fiber that sustain us all. The race may be grueling, but with sound policy and the united voice of farm country, we can ensure Missouri’s farms make it to the next finish line even stronger than before.
